The U.S. dollar extended its decline on Thursday as markets increasingly priced in Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year, while ongoing trade tensions continued to cloud the global economic outlook.
President Trump signaled flexibility on trade deadlines Wednesday, suggesting he might extend the July 8 cutoff for negotiations with certain countries. However, he warned that the U.S. would soon outline proposed trade terms to dozens of nations, leaving them to either accept or reject the offers.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had earlier hinted at potential deadline extensions for countries demonstrating good faith in negotiations, setting the stage for Trump's comments that kept currency traders guessing about future trade policy directions.
The lack of clarity surrounding global trade relations - compounded by vague details about this week's U.S.-China framework agreement - weighed heavily on market sentiment. Investors responded by further unwinding dollar positions across major currency pairs.
The greenback's broad retreat propelled the euro to a seven-week peak during early trading before settling at $1.1515. Sterling gained ground as well, rising 0.34% to $1.3583, while the yen strengthened by 0.4% to reach ¥143.95 per dollar.
The dollar index slumped to its lowest level since April at one point during Thursday's session before stabilizing around a reading of just over98 points - reflecting growing skepticism about America's economic momentum relative to other developed nations.
"There appears method behind President Trump's negotiating tactics," observed Rodrigo Catril from National Australia Bank."By creating artificial deadlines then extending them selectively,the administration maintains pressure while allowing breathing room.But markets remain cautious given how quickly these situations can evolve."The Swiss franc notably outperformed against its American counterpart with USD/CHF sliding nearly half a percent lower.The Australian dollar dipped slightly amid risk-off flows while New Zealand’s currency eked out modest gains despite broader caution among forex participants worldwide. Wednesday’s softer-than-expected US inflation print has turbocharged speculation regarding imminent Fed easing moves.Traders now see better than even odds for at least one quarter-point reduction when policymakers convene in September.This afternoon’s producer price data may offer additional clues about domestic pricing pressures and their implications for monetary policy going forward.
China’s yuan edged higher though its advance remained constrained by fragile US-China trade détente.Westpac economist Mantas Vanagas noted:"The framework agreement lacks substantive details,making it difficultto assess whether genuine progress occurred or if this simply represents another temporary pause inthe ongoing economic conflict between Washington and Beijing." Euro Extends Rally
The single European currency maintainedits upward trajectory after Wednesday’ssignificant appreciation across multiple crosses.EUR/JPY briefly touched levels not seen since last autumn before pulling back slightly,yet still demonstrates impressive year-to-date performance versus most peers including commodity-linked units like AUD and NZD.
Analysts attribute recent euro strength largelyto shifting expectations around ECB policy.Last week’s anticipated rate cut came with surprising hintsabout potential pausein further easing measures following inflation’s return totarget levels—a stark contrastwith mounting betsfor renewedFed stimulus laterthisyear.
"The ECB appears less dovishthan previously thoughtwhilethe Fed looks increasingly likelyto restartits easingcycle,"explained Commonwealth Bank strategist Carol Kong."This policy divergence provides fundamental supportfor EUR appreciation."
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